New alliances in store

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New alliances in store

Punjab is a politically base state for Shiromani Akali Dal and it has lost in a very bad manner last assembly polls in two thousand and seventeen. Akali Dal which ruled the state for many years under the leadership of Parkash Singh Badal reduced to only fifteen seats in the last elections. Now, the next elections are due next year and Badal’s party is desperate to come back to power. In its quest for regaining power, it has weighing new options for alliances and in its first attempt, SAD has formed an alliance with Mayavati’s BSP for the assembly polls. SAD has no option to return to BJP now(though anything can happen in politics and this is not a possibility that can be ruled out completely) as bitterness has raised to a very high level between once alliance partners. SAD was also the oldest partner of BJP in NDA like Shivsena. But, on the farm laws, SAD moved out of NDA for its own political selfishness. SAD wanted to show itself as the only Messiah of farmers and for that, SAD walked out of NDA. Now, the voters will decide whether that decision was a calculated risk or advantageous for the party. After being relegated to its worst tally of fifteen seats in the one hundred and seventeen member Punjab Assembly in the last election, SAD hopes that its alliance with the BSP can help it stage a comeback in the state polls next years. Navjeevan Gopal explains why the Akali Dal is pinning its hopes on this new alliance after its break-up with the BJP. In the last  Assembly elections, the BSP contested on one hundred and eleven seats, and barring former party president of BSP Punjab unit at that time, Avtar Singh Karimpuri, all one hundred and ten candidates ended up forfeiting their security deposits. Though he managed to save his security deposit, Karimpuri finished fourth in the Phillaur (SC) constituency. The BSP had a vote share of one point fifty-nine percent on the seats it contested. The BJP which contested on twenty-three seats in alliance with SAD won on three and had a vote share of twenty-nine point twenty-five percent in seats it contested. In the 2012 Assembly elections, BSP contested on all 117 seats, won none with 109 of the party candidates forfeiting their security deposits. At 4.3 percent, the vote share of BSP was, however, better than in 2017. In the 2007 Assembly elections, BSP’s vote share was 4.17 percent with 113 of 115 candidates party fielded losing their security deposits. Despite the party’s founder Kanshi Ram hailing from the state, the BSP in more than two decades now has not been able to create a niche for itself, despite nearly thirty-two percent of the Dalit population in the state. The Dalit voters have not voted for BSP candidates en masse, the results of elections for over the past two decades reveal. The leader said that the party got a survey spanning around two months done by an agency and inputs from local Akali leaders were also taken before it was decided to have a pact with the BSP. Dalit voters are fed up with Congress now as the latter has not done any significant for them in all these years. Punjab has been always a state where upper casts have ruled in every field and now Dalit voters may ditch Congress and switch to SAD.  The reason for the advantage SAD sees for the alliance with BSP would be useful is that, in the last elections, SAD candidates have lost with the margin of just under one thousand votes. And in all these constituencies, the number of BSP supporters is within the range of twenty-five thousand to ten thousand. This means SAD will have a benefit of BSP votes in lieu of BSP will get the advantage of SAD votes which are in a large number of entire Punjab. Not only this, with the alliance, BSP can expand its presence outside Uttar Pradesh which is considered as a regional party like friend and foe Samajwadi Party. BSP can erase the stamp of a regional party with this alliance, so both are in an advantageous situation. The seats they may win or not, but the advantage of pan India presence is there sure. So, for BSP also, this alliance is not a loss. Many more alliances will be in store in the coming years.