Kerla: Early forecasts suggest that the monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on June 1, its normal arrival date. “Extended range forecast suggests monsoon will arrive over Kerala on time, around June 1. This is an early indication. @indiametdept official monsoon forecast on May 15 and rainfall forecast update around May 31,” M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences tweeted on Thursday.  “Early analysis indicates monsoon will arrive around June 1 over Kerala. Like we have projected earlier it's likely to be a normal monsoon this year,” Rajeevan said. Monsoon for this year is likely to bring the normal amount of rainfall at 98% of the long period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department had said in its forecast on April 16, while adding that there could be a variation of 5% over or under the prediction.

India recorded above-average monsoon rains for two consecutive years, and a normal season this year will significantly help the agriculture sector in particular, and the economy in general, following a year when the pandemic has stressed earnings.

The summer rains – which typically set in from June 1  are critical because nearly 60% of India’s net arable land lacks irrigation and nearly half the population depends on a farm-based livelihood. The rains also replenish 89 “nationally important reservoirs” critical for drinking and power generation