Big challenge for Modi
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Prime minister Modi's government recently means on 26th of May, completed seven years of his formidable government which is so far seriously unchallenged, neither by Congress nor any other strong group. But, Modi has many serious challenges ahead in the eighth year of governance including the largest health crisis triggered by Coronavirus. In the earlier two years of the Corona pandemic, Modi has failed part in the first and much more largely in the second year of the Corona wave. Now, he has the more serious task of both controlling pandemic and bringing the economy to the track. The beginning of the third year of Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s second term would be an apt occasion to look at the early days of this innings. He began as a run-hungry batsman, eager to notch up a big score, belting out sixes and fours to every corner of the ground. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government divided Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and abrogated Article 370 in one fell swoop. A new Union Territory, Ladakh, emerged and J&K’s full state status was done away with. The practice of triple talaq was declared illegal. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) always had these issues in its sights, but Modi is the one who grasped the nettle. He got the numbers and so he could do whatever he wanted. Numbers are still in his favor in Loksabha, but he is facing severe criticism now and seems to be somewhat on the back foot which is not his tendency. His vow of making India a $5-trillion economy by 2024 meant removing certain hurdles to growth. He zeroed in on non-performing assets of public sector banks as one and a merger of 19 banks into four was executed. Despite unprecedented opposition from farmers and the Opposition, agri-sector laws were changed and the path to the privatization of government undertakings was cleared. Modi meant to show that he would not hold back on economic reform. Then disaster struck in the form of the lethal Coronavirus. Of the three major challenges facing the government, this has been the biggest the NDA has faced by far. The death toll has gone to more than three lakhs. The Opposition and some experts claim that the death toll could be higher and a third wave may be in the offing. The danger of Corona waves will be there unless half of the population of the country is vaccinated. But there is a scarcity of vaccines and it shows how miserably Modi failed in vaccination which he has himself launched with much fanfare. The government claims that everyone will be vaccinated by December but so far there is little to inspire confidence in this assertion. A vaccination drive for those above eighteen years has been announced, but hundreds of vaccination centers are running short of vaccines for this cohort. There have been queues of senior citizens for vaccine and they are told after a two-hour wait that, the vaccine is no longer in the facility. In fact, the whole vaccination strategy, which was to be a model for the world, is now in trouble. Vaccines are in short supply and prior commitments made to foreign nations for vaccine supplies cannot be fulfilled.
According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the rural unemployment rate reached 13.5% in the week ending May 23. On May 9, it was 7.29%. The unemployment rate in cities was found to be 17.4% and the national unemployment rate has climbed to a new high of 14.7%. If the lockdowns do not end quickly, the situation could worsen. Certainly, the government will have to address the deteriorating financial condition. The second challenge Modi faces is political. Next year, assembly elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, and Manipur. In many of these states, Congress has a good chance of coming to the power and in Punjab, it is already in power. So Modi and Shaha will have to harness all their might to win these states. The displeasure over extreme unemployment coupled with severe inflation will harm Mod Shaha duo’s efforts to make India free from Congress. Fortunately, Congress is not in a position to encash Modi’s failure which will be a solace for Modi. Despite the victories in Assam and Puducherry, the defeat in West Bengal has dented the BJP’s reputation as an invincible election machine. During Modi 2.0, the party has won only four out of 10 state elections. In these, the role of the allies was crucial. That is why many political critics feel that even though there is no alternative to Modi at the Centre, the voters prefer strong state-level parties in the assembly elections. Modi will show all his caliber in these elections otherwise if once an impression spreads about his failing spree, in Loksabha elections he may get into trouble.