Do not neglect warnings

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Do not neglect warnings

While fighting with Covid-19 second surge, many states in India now have to fight severe cyclonic storm Tautkee. There are many ways about how to pronounce the  name of the cyclone, but the devastation it may cause would be more dangerous. The nature is giving many warnings by its way to us about not to play with the environment and ecology. Somewhere, there occur avalanches or glaciers are burst in the Himalayin ranges. We are encroaching nature and so we are paying the price for it. Now, we are facing a new disaster and that is of Arabian sea which is becoming a cyclonic hotbed. The warming of oceans means cyclones are now intensifying rapidly. A severe cyclonic storm, Tauktae, intensified on Saturday night into a “very severe cyclonic storm” over the east-central Arabian Sea and affected the Kerala, Goa, Karnataka and Maharashtra coastline over the weekend. According to the India Meteorological Department, it is “very likely to intensify further” during the next 12 hours, and may cross the Gujarat coast on Tuesday. While Tauktae is the first cyclone to hit India this year, climate scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) have warned that the Arabian Sea is fast becoming a “cyclone hotbed”. This warning can’t be ignored as a financial capital of a country situated at the banks of Arabian sea. If Mumbai is hurt in any way, entire Indian economy will be hurt. While scientists need more investments in monitoring technology to track cyclones, state governments will now have much less time to take measures for evacuation, and, therefore, must bolster their cyclone preparedness plans now. Already states like Maharashtra are fighting Covid19 and now the new disaster will cost more for the state. Earlier, the Bay of Bengal used to have more cyclones because the sea surface temperature remains consistently above twenty-eight degree Celsius, while the Arabian Sea area remained a degree or two cooler. But sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea have increased rapidly during the past century due to the climate crisis. The reclamation of the ocean and increased construction near the sea are the main reasons for ocean warming. The unholy nexus of builders, politicians and corporators is the main culprit. Now, temperatures are often above the “warm pool threshold”, which supports the formation of intense cyclones. According to IITM, widespread extreme rainfall events (above 150 mm/day) have also increased threefold, thanks to the Arabian Sea’s warming. In reply to a Parliament question in March, the government confirmed that studies show an increasing trend of cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea, based on data between 1965 and 2020. The warming of oceans means cyclones are now intensifying rapidly. Reports suggest that the pace of the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project, which aims at reducing the vulnerability of coastal states, is very slow in the western parts of the country. Phase II of the project was approved in 2015 and was to be completed in 2020 for Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. But data shows early warning systems and multi-purpose cyclone shelters are yet to be completed in many of these states. Another analysis of extreme weather events in the past 50 years has revealed that though tropical cyclones were the least frequent event, they caused 28.6% of the mortalities, second only to floods responsible for maximum human deaths. The only way to limit such casualties is to understand climate science, warnings, and be cyclone-ready; there is simply no other option. If we do not keep cognizance of the looming catastrophe, Mumbai will be half sunk in the seawater by two thousand and fifty. Onus is on us.