Congress in difficulty

For Printing Download Epaper from files section from bottom of this page

Congress in difficulty

Indian National Congress, the oldest party in India has always been infested with faction finding. Even in pre independence period, it was divided in Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru camp and Subhash Chandra Bose camp. Later, this division was continued by Vallabh Bhai Patel camp. So, it is not wonder, that in every state Congress is facing factionalism and the high command has to work regularly to find a solution on fighting various groups withing the party. The recent example is Punjab where Congress rules. In the richest state in terms of agriculture, Congress has got a satisfaction of bringing a reconciliation between arch rivals groups of chief minister Amrindar Singh and Punjab Congress president Navjyot Singh Siddhu, it is very doubtful whether the arrangement will last till the elections to be held early next year. Because, even if high command has set an arrangement for the two factions work in tandem with each other, the enmity between the rival camps of Amrinder and Siddhu is so severe that, it is doubtful whether the workers will show the devotion for the party’s win in the elections. Both the workers may think that, if they work hard, the rival may be elected for the top post once again. So why would they waste their energy and hard work? Siddhu and Amrinder have been extremely critical of each other in the past. So, with a sudden order of high command to reconciliate, it is not possible both leaders will embrace with each other without a single bit of rivalry. Congress may win Punjab once again. As per past record, Congress vote share in the state is above thirty five percent. Even if it erodes due to anti incumbency factor and groupism reached to the sky high, five to six percent vote share may be lost. But, still Congress will win in the state. But, Congress will have to take care of communal equations. That are very delicate and any party may face defeat due to fault in understanding communal equations. Congress has played a safe game by appointing four vice presidents of various stronger communities. The dominant communities are Jat Sikh, Dalit, Hindu and OBC Sikh communities. Each vice president represents these communities each. But, the damage caused by faction fighting in the party may not be enough to tie over this problem. Because, the workers irrespective of communities, belong to this or that group and they will definitely play a role of damager. Jat Sikhs constitute about 20% of the total voters in Punjab; roughly 60% of Sikhs belong to the Jat Sikh community. They are not only numerically large, but also economically, socially and politically dominant. The Congress has never been popular amongst the Jat Sikhs. By appointing Nagra as one of its working presidents, the Congress is trying to mobilise the Jat Sikhs towards its fold. The votes of the Sikhs belonging to OBC communities have remained divided between the Congress and the Akalis. 

Dalits constitute a very large proportion of Punjab’s population — 32% as per Census 2011 estimates. Among all Dalits, one-third are Sikh. Findings of surveys indicate that the Congress has been able to mobilise the vote of Dalits — both Sikhs and Hindus.However, the party is also aware that it needs to maintain its support among the Dalits if it aims to win the 2022 Assembly election. The appointment of Danny as one of the four working presidents is an effort to keep the Dalit vote within the Congress fold. If Dalits moved towards the AAP, as had happened during 2017 Assembly elections, it could damage the prospects of the Congress. Whatever Mamta Banarjee done in West Bengal, Kejriwal can do it in Punjab. Whether Dalits or non-Dalits, Hindus of Punjab have voted for the Congress in larger numbers than they have for the Akalis during the last few elections The entry of the AAP and the BJP, contesting separately, poses a threat to the Hindu support base of the Congress. Communal equations along with faction fighting has made Congress path to victory very bumpy and difficult.